Projection of greenhouse gas emission trajectories from the South African mining and minerals processing sectors to 2030



National Planning Commission

Problem Statement:

in order to support development of South Africa’s National Development Plan, the Commissioners sought to obtain an understanding of the impacts of changes to the structure of the minerals sector in the country, as well as implications of increasing energy efficiency in the sector. The impacts were to be measured in terms of greenhouse gas emissions, employment and economic benefit.

The Green House approach:

The Green House built an Excel based model which was used to run a series of scenarios of growth of the sector and the impacts on the indicators of interest. Data to populate the model was sourced from the open literature, annual reports of mining and minerals companies and direct communication with these companies. The model was subject to an extensive stakeholder review process to ensure the integrity of the data.


The findings of the study highlighted the key sectors contributing to greenhouse gas emissions growth, and hence those considered most vulnerable to emissions reduction policies. At the same time it highlighted which sectors provided the most value in terms of jobs and economic benefit per tonne of CO2. The findings are understood to have provided an important source of information in the drafting of the Plan.